On the Syrian Aftermath

This week the brutal 53 year old Syrian regime of the Assad family came to an end. Hezbollah severely weakened, Russia, preoccupied in Ukraine, and Iran, suffering major economic  and defensive challenges, were unable this time to come to the aid of the regime which for the last 13 years has presided over a divided and conflicted country and has inflicted great hardships on its own people. In spite of what one might think of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Middle East policies,  Israel’s role in bringing about this collapse was substantial – – – and welcomed. What sort of government will replace the Assad dynasty remains to be seen. Will it follow in the chaotic footsteps of Libya after the overthrow of Gaddafi in 2011, or will it seek to establish a free and inclusive government that will be accepted its people and by the international community? The task of setting up a unified and stable government in a country rife with competing militias, widespread destruction and a fractured people will require statesmanship, massive capital and a few miracles.

The big loser in the demise of the Assad regime is Iran which has now lost its bridge to a now seriously weakened Hezbollah, and, hopefully, also to its dream of a friendly and and secure  path from the shores of Iran to the Mediterranean Sea.

Now What?

There are those who say, since Iran is weak and pretty much on its own, we should surgically take out their nuclear enterprise now and impose more crippling sanctions on the country. That may be a feel-good action that could have some short term benefits. But the West does not have a good track record of getting favorable long-term results from feel-good reprisals. Recall that after WW I the crushing vengeance directed at Germany gave rise to the emergence of Nazi Germany that led us into the bloodiest and most devastating war the world has ever seen. Contrast that to our posture after WW II when we helped our ruthless enemies, Germany and Japan, to rebuild and to integrate into the International order. They became constructive, industrial powerhouses and political allies.

I had a good deal of involvement with Iranians prior to the 1979 revolution, and I believe the vast majority of the people yearn to be accepted by and connected to the west. Attacks will only unify the people behind their government, regardless of how unpopular it may be. Iran is a large and resourceful country with a long and proud history. We must find a way to capitalize on this.

This is a historic moment in the troubled Middle East and we need wise leadership that will work to heal, and not to destroy. But, alas, finding wise leadership these days seems to be as fruitless as Diogenes, lamp in hand, looking for an honest man.

– – – – Just the view of a common man