In the 17th and 18th centuries China had an unhappy and often humiliating relationship with Russia. Even in 1912 when the Chinese Republic was created, it was too weak to resist the unequal treaties foisted upon it by Russia (and others). In the Bolshevik revolution in 1917-1922 China supported the losing White army. In 1923 the Bolshevik government returned the favor by supporting the Nationalist party, the Kuomintang, against the ruling Beiyang government. Over the years the relationship has been off and on; they fought brief wars with one another and competed for control over neighboring states. There remain ideological differences between the two communist states who share a border of over 2600 miles, along which there are still disputes.
So how and why have these two states now bonded?
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have quite similar personalities. Both are autocratic leaders who aspire to rule indefinitely. Both have strategic interests in expanding their realms to include other common ethic populations. They both have ambitions to be, not just a regional power but also a dominant global power. And they both fear the U.S.for its global strength and its broad and expanding economic and military presence so close to their borders.
So they have a common interest, but probably don’t entirely trust one another either. Xi would probably like to see the Ukraine war prolonged to weaken the U.S. and its allies. It would probably like to see Russia also weakened to secure China as the dominant party in the partnership they seem to be building. Xi does not want Putin to lose the war, nor to win it. He is using the war as another opportunity to showcase Chinese relevance and diplomacy, as he did recently in the Saudi Arabian-Iranian rapprochement. For Xi the Ukraine is another opportunity to solidify his global influence . For Putin this new relationship is a lifeline, a way to obtain needed military support and possibly a face-saving exit to a war that has gone nowhere and noway as expected.
That’s the way it is. You partner with whoever can do you the most good at the moment, for as long as it takes, but maybe only for that long.
As conflicts rage on inconclusively, at some point both sides start looking for “peace with honor.” As that time approaches each side will throw maximum effort onto the battlefield to solidly gains so as to increase leverage at the negotiating table. Are we there yet?
– – – – Just the view of a common man
Views of a Common Man 
Spot on !
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Ollie’s words speak volumes about the concerns we should have,
particularly about China, who has metamorphosed both economically
and militarily. Notwithstanding the numerous issues we have with
Russia, my comments below only address concerns about China.
An exponential growth in China’s military capabilities has been
matched by a steep rise in the lethality, accuracy, range and
quantity of its weapons systems. On top of this, Beijing has
ratcheted up its warlike rhetoric and tactics.
China also has a potential manpower base of another 200 million
males fit for military service available at any time. In addition to
this wealth of manpower, China is a nuclear power. It has enough
megatonnage, missiles, and bombers to hit the United States,
Europe, its Asian neighbors, and Russia.
Ollie is so right when he says Xi wants to “showcase China’s
relevancy and diplomacy”, and use the Ukraine war as an opportunity
to solidify his global influence. On April 21, 2022 Xi delivered a
keynote speech to the Boao Forum for Asia annual conference calling
for an acceptance of China not only as an emerging superpower but
also as an equal in addressing global challenges.
The U.S. should also be concerned that China conceivably takes the
unwillingness of the U.S. to challenge its latest moves as a cue for more
assertive action over Taiwan. That is the main prize Beijing seeks to
secure President Xi Jinping’s legacy.
Fortunately, China is not without economic concerns. China has
significant Japanese, U.S. and European industrial investments, and is
also overwhelmingly dependent on energy and goods passing through
the Malacca Strait between Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia, the
Indo-Pacific’s jugular vein. If war did break out, China would be
vulnerable since it shares land borders with 14 countries, bringing the
potential for challenges, if not open attack, on numerous fronts.
China is poised and ready. We should remember that betrayal doesn’t
always scream. Sometimes it whispers and the U.S. needs to be listening.
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Putin would like to rule the world but doesn’t have money finesse or reputation
China is more like Teddy Roosevelt
Walk softly but carry a big stick
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