On Ukraine, Russia and China

China is a Goliath with several significant near term challenges. Its economy is struggling with slow covid recovery, an aging and shrinking workforce, a strident, demanding population and a disgruntled client base. Its rapid rise to a dominant world power is in heated competition with the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, with Russia.

In Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China sees an opportunity to engage in some strategic geopolitical actions to rebalance things in its favor. By providing just enough support and encouragement to Russia, it hopes to prolong the war, thereby wearing down the economies and the resolve of both the U.S, and Russia, its two rivals for world domination. 

In a real sense, the war in Ukraine has evolved into a war between, Russia and NATO, and, even more specifically, to a war with the U.S. So it is a war we cannot afford to lose – – – or must find a way to end. 

Should Russia prevail, then China may well see that the time is ripe for its move on Taiwan and to other misdeeds in the region. That must be avoided. 

Russian intrusion into Ukraine is an assault on the very principles of the United Nations to which all parties have pledged commitment. Chapter one of the UN charter states: “All members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state – – –“. The resolve of the west, and the UN, to rigorously adhere to and to defend this tenet is being sorely tested. 

However painful for democracies and freedom loving people, it is a pain that must be endured. Russia must not win and China’s antics must not succeed.

So how can this tragedy be brought to an end? The Russian people are being inconvenienced but not to the point of rebellion. The Russian military seems to be still holding together, and even emboldened by some recent progress on the battlefield. Putin seems still in control and will not back down unless he can claim some  form of “win”.  And Zelensky seems determine to resist Russian aggression to the last building standing, to the last soldier walking and to the last American dollar extended.

Here’s one idea:

1. Crimea has historically been an integral  part of Russia, and has been a “de facto” part of Russia since 2014.  Legitimize the transfer of Crimea to Russian sovereignty.
2. Grant the people of the Donetsk and Luhansk certain autonomous rights to be negotiated and overseen by a UN conducted referendum. 
3. Commit that Ukraine will delay any decision on membership in any foreign military alliance for at least 5 years.
4. Refer all Human Rights abuses and all claims for war reparations, on both sides, for adjudication by the International Criminal Court or other appropriate international courts or arbitration boards.
5. Lift all sanctions on Russia and provide for the resumption of international commercial and governmental contracts, amended if deemed advisable/necessary.

Ukraine’s resolve, determination and sacrifice in the face of a savage onslaught by a menacing superpower has been truly heroic and inspiring. But it is time to stop the systematic razing of the country, the growing misery of the people and the widespread upheaval in the world. 

We have to end the conflict  – – – and soon.

– – – – Just the view of a common man