On the Future of the Middle East

Everybody, everything has a future. It’s either good, bad or unknown. Middle East future hovers between bad and unknown.

Iran: Sanctions, mismanagement and wars have devastated Iran economically and severely weakened it politically. The recent widespread protests demonstrate the mood of its citizens but the people have no power to wrest control from the Ayatollahs. Any regime change will likely involve a military takeover. That eventually will raise another set of unknowns. As of now, Iran has lost too much of its resources and too much its credibility to be a major factor in the near term future of the region. 

Syria: The new government in Syria led by Ahmad al Sharaa, a former Al Qaeda leader, is still grappling with the task of unifying a country with a decimated economy and several rogue power centers, heavily armed and pretty much independent of any overarching authority. It has not yet won the allegiance of most minority groups such as the Kurds and the Druze. It will remain a work in progress for some years and unlikely to play any significant role in near term regional affairs.

Iraq: Iraq has always been important in Middle East affairs, but the disruptions and turmoil following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003 has left the country struggling to unify its people and to rebuild the country. Its preoccupation with these priorities precludes it from any meaningful near term role in resolving the region’s woes.

Yemen: Never a regional power player, it became a disruptive element in its civil war which started in 2014 when regional players backed different factions. While the UAE and Saudi Arabia now back opposing sides, a reconciliation will likely occur and with Iran no longer able to prop up the Houtis militarily, a settlement will no doubt be brokered soon, but it will take years for Yemen to recover from its internal strife.

Saudi Arabia: Since 2017, under the leadership on Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, eldest son of ailing King Salman and defacto leader, the kingdom has been radically transformed from a closed, ultra religious Islamic republic into a modernizing open society, with considerable clout in the region. It will continue to use its power to promote Arab causes and will likely play a decisive role in an eventual settlement of the Palestinian conundrum. There will continue to be jockeying for influence between the other Arab heavy weights in the region, notably, the UAE and Qatar, but Saudi Arabia is and will continue to be the key player.

Qatar: Tiny Qatar with a population of 3 million, the most conservative Arab country in the region, has leveraged its huge gas resources to punch above its weight class, carving out a role for itself as a mediator in regional conflicts, often antagonizing its other regional rivals. Home to America’s largest military base in the Middle East, it will probably avoid policies contrary to U.S. interests.

United Arab Emirates: The UAE is also a country that punches above its weight class. With a population of around 11 million and oil production of about 4 million barrels per day, the UAE has involved itself with a number of conflicts, both in the Middle East but also in Africa. Tensions with Saudi Arabia over the civil war in Yemen will be resolved, but they will remain erstwhile competitors on the world scene and will no doubt have a voice in any regional settlement. 

Turkey: While not an Arab country, Turkey sees itself as a key actor in the Arab Middle East, its own backyard. This was made abundantly clear ever since its several overtures for membership in the European Union were frustrated and denied. It now seems to see its future more aligned to the east than to the west. Its preoccupation with its own restless Kurdish population is reason for it to take keen interest in Syria, Iraq, Iran and Syria, who also have sizable Kurdish enclaves striving for many years to coalesce into a unified and independent “Kurdistan”. With the largest and most sophisticated standing army in the Middle East (except possibly for Israel), Turkey has the clout to be taken seriously. It will no doubt insist on being a party to any major regional realignment.

Israel: The only country in the Middle East which is neither Arab nor Islamic. Israel has been seen as a pariah in the region ever since its founding in 1948. Its subjugation of the Palestinian people, its usurpation of Arab land and its refusal to allow Palestinians a sovereign state has resulted in unending animosity and widespread tension with its neighbors. Following the recent bloody and destructive Gaza war, the 2020 Abraham Accords, brokered by President Trump in his first term, is tenuous, with Arab states demanding some restitution and progress to address the long, debilitating Palestinian debacle. In 2025, Israel demonstrated its enormous military might with devastating attacks on Gaza, Iran, Yemen, Syria and the Hezbollah in Lebanon. A peaceful future for the region will require Israeli participation and acquiescence. 

Egypt:  Once the undisputed leader of the Arab world, Egypt fell out of Arab favor with its 1979 peace agreement with Israel and has since suffered economically and politically following the ‘Arab spring’ which brought about the ouster of its long term president and the emergence of a military regime. It is slowly gaining some recognition for its efforts to broker an end to the Gaza war but Egypt is unlikely to exert much influence in shaping the future of the region.

So how can these countries with divergent interests and differing  strengths somehow work together to arrive at a lasting peace agreement, acceptable to all?

There are three key players primarily involved:

1. Israel: With Netanyahu and the current uncompromising ultra conservative Jewish bloc in his government, there can be no agreement.  While Arab support for the Palestinians has waned over the years, the Gaza war has reignited both Arab and broader Islamic outrage  and made it difficult for them to ignore the long-suffering fate of their Palestinian brothers. The ball is really in Israel’s court, and without a new government more in tune with the senses of its own  Jewish public and the impatience of the international community, the situation will continue to fester. 
2. Saudi Arabia is the key player on the Arab side. There is strong interest in normalizing relations with Israel but there is concern about pushback from the Arab world if the Palestinians are abandoned to the dismal fate they have suffered for 78 years.  But alone the principal Arab Regional powers can do little: It will take international participation, and financial and political commitment.
3. President Trump is anxious to continue in his goal of becoming the foremost broker of peace in the world. Whether he can apply sufficient pressure and offer sufficiently attractive sweeteners to the parties to move the needle towards peace remains to be seen. His goal is something the world will accept as PEACE – – – Justice for the parties will be of secondary importance to him. 

Palestinian resistance, manly comprised of the labeled terrorist organizations – – Hamas, Hezbollah, the PLO, Islamic Jihad, etc, were all birthed in the aftermath of injustices to the Palestinians. 78 years of history has shown us that there can be no peace, no security and no lasting stability without some progress toward restoring Palestinian rights.

Peace in the Middle East has always been simple. Restore Palestinian rights in a just way; Everything else is negotiable.

– – – – Just the view of a common man