Wars tend to galvanize the people and unite the nation around its leadership – – especially when there is perception that evil sources have unleashed an unjust attack on the country’s vital interests. The Russian propaganda machine is alive and well-oiled. Protestors of the war are leaving the country or are suppressed into silence. Polls show Putin’s approval rating is at an all time high.
But Putin’s power is not reliant on approval of the people. His power is protected by the military establishment. There is growing concern that the embarrassing performance of the Russian war machine in Ukraine may be leading to a rift in Russia’s senior leadership. Putin is blaming the military for its poor performance while the military is questioning Putin’s false premises that led them into a war for which they were ill prepared and did not fully embrace.
The big question is whether this rift will lead to a realignment of Russian leadership and a reassessment of its foreign policy. Perhaps limiting its invasion objectives, and asserting that the goals of Russia have indeed been achieved with this scale-back, will enable the Russians to largely withdraw and proclaim victory; a message that might fly inside Russia but nowhere else.
Of course, any declaration of victory does not absolve Russia from the consequences of its invasion. The repercussions of the war must be addressed, and Russia must be held fully accountable for war reparations and for war crimes. The damage is too great, the atrocities too grave and the violation of international norms too egregious to forgive or to brush off. The western world must extract maximum penalties and impose the harshest punishment on the guilty.
How long will it be before the Russian people learn the true details of this unprovoked, unjustified and brutal invasion of a sovereign, independent neighbor? Regrettably, in the final analysis, it is they, the Russian people, that will bear the brunt of the suffering. Will this look too much like Germany after WWI?
- – – – Just the view of a common man
Views of a Common Man 