On Putin and Ukraine

As incredible as it seems, for the first time in 77 years a bloody war is raging in Europe. Few people (including me) really believed that Putin was serious about invading Ukraine. It made no sense for him or anyone else. For many (including me) it was a bold bluff to extract a few concessions from western Europe. That didn’t happen. So Putin faced two choices, back down and lose face (a non-starter) or invade, hoping for a quick victory. Time for a quick victory has already passed and his troops are suffering substantial and unexpected losses. The Ukrainians, grossly outnumbered and ‘out-weaponed’, are defending their nation valiantly. 

Putin’s chief weapon is his perceived ‘unpredictability.’  Desperate, he has played the nuclear weapons card. He has taken a page out of the playbook of Kim Jong Un, who has a few nuclear tipped ICBMs and has convinced us all that he just might be crazy enough to unleash them if provoked. So naturally we tread carefully. This same tactic has dissuaded NATO from direct engagement with the Russians. Putin has painted a grim picture for anyone who intervenes in his “just” war. It seems the best we can do is to intensify economic sanctions, provide Ukraine with defensive weapons and wish the Ukrainians good luck. 

The sanctions are creating serious economic and social hardships on the Russian people, but they do little in the short run to halt the war. As of February 22, 2022, according to Wikipedia, Russia had over $640 billion in foreign currency reserves. Assuming these are accessible, the war machine is well-oiled for the time being. (The U.S. has $250B)

How can this madness end? It seems there are a several possibilities.

• Ukraine will be forced to capitulate and a government agreeable to Russia will be installed – – – and the Russian presence will likely face determined and costly underground resistance. The west won’t do much except maybe maintain the sanctions. But Putin will have Ukraine’s substantial resources.

• Putin will stop the war citing his concern for the suffering of innocents(!), announcing he has delivered a clear message to Ukraine and any other country that mistreats its Russian speaking people or acts against the interest of mother Russia. Maybe he would annex the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk.

• The Russian military will grow tired of its embarrassment on the battlefield, the economic hardships imposed on the Russian people, its international isolation and perhaps the folly of the whole undertaking, – – and remove Putin from power.

Maybe the second is most likely, the last is most preferred.

Whatever happens, to me it is quite likely that the west will try and figure out how to get things back to what they were before, the sanctions will be phased out and the oil and gas will again flow westward.

• – – Just the view of a common man.